基于环境库兹涅茨曲线的江苏省经济增长的环境效应研究

Study on Environmental Effects of Economic Development in Jiangsu Province Based on Environmental Kuznets Curve

对江苏省1991—2004年经济增长与环境质量关系的分析表明,江苏省的环境库兹涅茨曲线不同于一般的倒U型形状而呈现出N型,环境质量有经过改善后再次恶化的倾向。江苏省经济增长的环境效应分解为各种环境污染物的经济规模效应、结构效应和技术效应,表现为三方面特征:(1)总体上多数产业的单位产值污染排放水平有一定下降;(2)产业的污染特性基本未发生明显改变,说明江苏省的工业结构没有发生剧烈变化;(3)江苏省的环境库兹涅茨曲线处于上升段,说明经济增长对环境的规模效应要大于经济增长的技术效应和结构效应。

This paper investigates the relationship between economic development and environmental quality with environmental Kuznets curve during the period of 1991 to 2004 for Jiangsu province. The regression results on EKC indicate that the regular EKC is not supported, but it follows an N - shaped curve, that is the inverted - U relationship initially, but the relationship between environmental pressure and income is positive again, environment quality deteriorates at last. We analyze the mechanism of EKC from the industrial aspect by using the industrial data of Jiangsu province. It is found that （ 1 ） pollution intensity of most industries drops to some extent. （2） Sectoral pollution intensities don＇ t change too much. （3） environmental Kuznets curve is rising. This paper holds that we should not only rely on economic development itself to solve environment deterioration, the turning point doesn＇t appear automatically. Efficient policies cooperating environment and economy is necessary to achieve sustainable growth.