企业资本结构动态优化模型与实证——基于宏观经济要素的研究

The Model and Empirical Results of Dynamic Optimization of Capital Structure: Based on Macroeconomic Factors

作为融资决策的外部条件,税率、利率和通货膨胀率等宏观经济要素影响着企业资本结构优化。以不完全信息博弈下的企业价值模型为基础,通过资本结构最优跨期决策的推导,得出宏观经济要素与资本结构优化的动态关系:资本结构优化方向应与税率变动方向相同,与利率、通货膨胀率变动方向相反。并且,利用1995-2004年间中国宏观经济数据和上市公司财务数据对理论模型进行了实证检验。

As the external condition of financing decision, macroeconomic factors such as tax rate, interest rate and inflation rate affect the optimization of corporate capital structure. Based on the firm value model under incomplete information gambling, the cross time decision of optimal capital structure infers the dynamic relations between the macroeconomic factors and the optimization of capital structure： optimizing direction of capital structure should be consistent with the change of tax rate direction and be opposite with interest rate and inflation rate. Furthermore, the theoretical results are supported by empirical research from Chinese-listed financial data.