我国流动性过剩形成的原因及对策分析

RESEARCH ON THE REASONS OF EXCESSIVE LIQUIDITY AND COUNTER-MEASURES

通过对"三元悖论"理论的解读,揭示了我国商业银行流动性过剩与汇率制度之间存在密切相关性,即在我国现行的汇率制度下,由国际收支双顺差带来的外汇储备的不断增加直接导致了整个社会的流动性过剩。基于研究,提出了:对国内经济失衡进行调节以平衡国际收支;完善我国汇率形成的市场机制,培育相对均衡汇率;深化我国外汇管理体制改革,有序开放资本市场的相关建议。

In this paper, the theory of trilemma is studied and it is revealed that there is close connection between excessive banking liquidity and exchange rate system. Under the prevailing exchange system, the ever expanding foreign exchange reserve contributes directly to excessive liquidity in the society as a whole. Based on this analysis, it is proposed that we should balance the BOP by adjusting the domestic economy, improve the market mechanism of exchange rate formation, cultivate a balanced exchange rate, deepen the reform of foreign exchange control, and the capital market orderly.