摘要
The burrowing nematode （Radopholus similis） is one of the main quarantine pests in China, and the risk of invasion posed by this nematode is becoming more and more serious with regard to the international trade being intensified day by day. It is urgent to analyse the potential geographic distribution of R. similis in China. Genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system （GARP） and maximum entropy （MAXENT）, the two niche models which have been widely used to predict the potential geographic distribution of alien species, were used to predict the distribution of R. similis in China. We also presented a model comparison of the results by both threshold-dependent and threshold-independent evaluations. It has been shown that the two niche models could be used to predict the potential distribution of R. similis reliably. The potential distribution of R. similis should be constricted within the south of China, such as Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Yunnan provinces, and Taiwan of China. The MAXENT gives a better prediction than that of GARP. R. similis can be introduced to China by flowers and nursery stock＇s international shipping. The predicted results indicate that R. similis can occur in south coastal area of China and Yunnan Province, which are the main flower and nursery stock＇s import-export areas in China. Consequently, a strong quarantine program is needed at the ports of such areas to prevent the pest from being introduced to China.
The burrowing nematode （Radopholus similis） is one of the main quarantine pests in China, and the risk of invasion posed by this nematode is becoming more and more serious with regard to the international trade being intensified day by day. It is urgent to analyse the potential geographic distribution of R. similis in China. Genetic algorithm for rule-set prediction modeling system （GARP） and maximum entropy （MAXENT）, the two niche models which have been widely used to predict the potential geographic distribution of alien species, were used to predict the distribution of R. similis in China. We also presented a model comparison of the results by both threshold-dependent and threshold-independent evaluations. It has been shown that the two niche models could be used to predict the potential distribution of R. similis reliably. The potential distribution of R. similis should be constricted within the south of China, such as Hainan, Guangdong, Guangxi, Fujian, Yunnan provinces, and Taiwan of China. The MAXENT gives a better prediction than that of GARP. R. similis can be introduced to China by flowers and nursery stock＇s international shipping. The predicted results indicate that R. similis can occur in south coastal area of China and Yunnan Province, which are the main flower and nursery stock＇s import-export areas in China. Consequently, a strong quarantine program is needed at the ports of such areas to prevent the pest from being introduced to China.
