土地财政、产业结构演变与税收超常规增长——中国“税收增长之谜”的一个分析视角

Land Finance,Industrial Structure Changes and Rapid Tax Revenue Growth in China

本文考察了最近10多年来我国税收增长速度一直显著高于GDP增长速度的现象。特别从地方政府土地财政激励与产业结构演变的角度考察了当前中国特定体制下地方政府做大财政资源产业的经济与政治激励。基于1998—2003年中国地级城市面板数据,我们实证考察了地方政府协议土地出让对财政占GDP比例的当期和滞后影响。最后,本文从土地财政角度对税收增长可持续性进行了初步评估。

This article explored the issue of rapid tax growth in China from the perspective of local land finance and industrial structural changes. It is argued that under current land system and intergovernmental fiscal and administrative system in China, local government have incentive to provide cheap land and compete for industrial investment that can generate high revenue growth in the future. An Empirical evidence is provided using land leasing and fiscal revenue data from Chinese cities.