多时段可中断负荷合同的市场价值评估

Market value evaluation of multi-period interruptible load contracts

在已有的单时段可中断负荷价值研究的基础上,进一步考虑了中断持续多个时段和销售侧电价由政府制定的情况,提出适用于多时段的可中断负荷价值评估方法。并基于计及负荷率影响的电价预测模型,采用蒙特卡罗方法对其进行评估。新英格兰电力市场的仿真计算表明了所提方法的合理性和可行性,结果显示,缩短持续时间、提高中断次数和降低中断门槛都可以提高可中断负荷市场价值,但同时增加了操作实施的难度。为了有效利用可中断负荷资源,应该根据市场运行经验对这些关键参数进行合理设置。

Based on the research of single- period interruptible load and with the consideration of government- fixed sale prices,the value evaluation formulation of multi- period interruptible load is presented. With the load ratio based price forecast model,Monte Carlo simulation is adopted to evaluate the market value of multi- period interruptible load. Simulation of New England market proves its feasibility and rationality. Results show that,reduction of interruption duration,increment of interruption amount and derating of price threshold can enhance the value of interruptible load, but complicate the practical operation of interruptible load. In order to effectively utilize the resources of interruptible load,the key parameters should be carefully set according to the experience of market operation.