江西致洪暴雨天气特征分析与流域洪涝预报研究

Synoptic Feature of Flood-causing Heavy Rain and Study of Drainage Flood Prediction in Jiangxi Province

在对1959～1990年的资料进行大量普查分析和统计的基础上,指出对流层中低层形势特征在江西致洪暴雨中的特殊重要性,分析了各个天气系统对形成致洪暴雨的作用,并根据中低层天气形势特征来分型建立致洪暴雨的预报模式。应用水文上降水产生流量过程线的变化原理,提出了仅用降水资料来推算流域洪涝指数,用量化指标来预报未来流域洪涝强度的研究思路和方法。该方法思路是利用流域内测站雨量计算出流域的有效综合面雨量(考虑了前一段时间内的逐日流域面雨量的不同贡献)。复核流量(或水位)等洪涝资料与流域有效综合面雨量的关系,最终确定出各级洪涝指数的流域有效综合面雨量的大小,确定洪涝等级。

Based on analysis and statistics of the 1959-1990 data, it is shown that the situation feature in median-low layer in troposphere plays an important role in flood-causing heavy rain in Jiangxi. The effect of each kind of synoptic systems on flood-causing heavy rain is analyzed, and a prediction model for flood-causing heavy rain according to the situation feature of median-low layer is built up. Using the hydrological change principle of flow procedure lines produced by precipitation, a research method forecasting the flood and waterlogging intensity in valley with quantitative indicator, by which the flood and waterlogging index is only calculated with precipitation data, is presented. In this method, the station precipitation is used to calculate effective integrated area-averaged rainfall in valley （considering different contribution of successive area-averaged rainfall in valley during the former period）. By checking the relationship between the data of flood and waterlogging such as precipitation （or water level） and the effective integrated area-averaged rainfall, the magnitude of effective integrated area-averaged rainfall of each level of flood and waterlogging index in valley is determined finally.