东南亚各国人均GDP的马尔可夫法预测

The Forecast of GDP Per Capita in Southeast Asian Countries with Markov Chain

选取1998年-2003年的数据,运用马尔可夫转移概率矩阵方法,建立一个预测东南亚各地区人均GDP在n年后发展变化的预测模型,并利用一步转移矩阵和基期对东南亚9个国家的人均GDP在5年后和10年后的演化和变化情况进行科学地分析和预测.

This paper sets up a forcast model based on statistics from 1998 to 2003 by using Markov Transition Probability Matrix to predict the change of GDP per capita in Southeast Asian countries. It further utilises transfer matrix and base period to analyse and forcast the evolution and change of GDP per capita in 5 and 10 years in 9 Southeast Asian countries.