货运周转量、运输价格与国民经济的动态关系

The Dynamic Relationship on Freight Turnover Volume, GDP and Transportation Price

在对货运周转量、运输价格与国民经济的分析基础上,选取我国1978～2006年的实际数据,对三变量之间的动态关系进行了协整分析,建立了误差修正模型,寻求三者之间的短期动态波动和长期均衡关系,且通过Granger因果关系检验三者的因果性。结果表明:货运周转量、GDP和运输价格之间存在唯一的协整关系。货运周转量是GDP和运输价格的Granger原因,GDP是运输价格的Granger原因。

On analyzing Freight Turnover Volume, GDP and Transportation Price, this paper selects the data from 1978 to 2006 to establish the dynamic relationship on them by the approaches of Co-integration theory. Also establish the Error Correction Models to look for the short-term dynamic fluctuation and long-term equilibrium. Meanwhile, this paper uses Granger causality to test the mutual relationship. The results show that there is a unique long run dynamic equilibrium among the three variables. Freight Turnover Volume is the Granger causal relationship of GDP and Transportation Price. There isa single causal relationship between GDP and Transportation Price.