贝叶斯库存管理方式下供应链中的信息汇聚效应

Pooled Information Effect in Supply Chains under Bayesian Inventory Management

考虑由一个供应商和两个零售商组成的二级供应链,假设产品需求分布未知,零售商将观察到的需求信息共享给供应商,各企业按贝叶斯方法管理生产和库存。本文将表明在一定条件下,信息的汇聚可能会扭曲供应商对市场需求的认识,造成供应商严重产品积压或严重缺货,我们把这种现象称为信息汇聚效应。本文将给出需求信息可完全观察时,多周期供应链中发生信息汇聚效应的充分条件,并推出发生信息汇聚效应的概率的下界。

This paper considers a simple supply chain consisting of a supplier and two retailers. Assuming the demand distribution of the products is unknown and the retailers shares their demand information with the supplier, this paper shows that under certain conditions, pooling information will distort the suppliers belief of the market demand, which is called pooled information effect. This paper presents the sufficient conditions under which pooled information effect takes place. And it also obtains the inferior bound of the probability of the effect.