专利申请与授权量的时间序列分析

Time Series Analysis of Data of Patent Application and Authorization

专利的申请和授权量动态分析与预测是建立专利预警机制、设计与制定相关政策和战略的基础,具有重要的理论意义。起伏型时间序列法是一种新的时间序列分析法,提出用起伏型时间序列法对专利申请与授权数据进行动态分析。以2005年国内专利申请与授权数量月动态为研究数据,对专利申请、授权及发明专利申请数量的月动态进行建模模拟,结果令人满意,说明起伏型时间序列分析方法可应用于专利申请与授权动态模拟,从而丰富了专利申请与授权数据动态分析方法。

The dynamic analysis and prediction of patent application and authorization are the base for building preparedness mechanism, designing and formulating related policy and strategy, which has important theoretic significance. Analysis of wave-type time series is a new method, which is used to simulate the data of patent application and authorization in China in the paper. With the dynamics of patent application and authorization in China in 2005 as research objective, the method of wave-type time series is used to simulate the dynamics of patent, and the dynamics models of patent application and authorization and invention patent in application are deduced in this paper. The results are satisfactory, which means that the analysis of wave-type time series can be used to simulate the dynamics of authorized patent and palent application. The study will enrich the methods for simulating the data of authorized patent and patent application.