基于交通方式选择的公交出行需求预测

Travel Mode Choice-Based Prediction of Public Transit Demand

在对国内外研究现状分析的基础上,研究立足于影响公交乘客意愿和出行选择的公交服务水平因素分析,应用期望偏好(SP)调查方法得到国内2个城市出行选择行为特征数据,分析国内城市出行者意愿和交通方式选择行为的特征和规律,在此基础上应用慈溪市的数据建立了考虑个人特性和出行时间及成本等选择特性因素的交通方式选择模型,对公交出行需求进行了预测,并结合交通方式选择行为特征调查数据和出行比例预测结果,提出了相应的公交优先发展策略.

The paper presents a research of the travel choice characteristics of passengers in China that has heretofore largely gone unnoticed in strategy of public transit priority based on travelers intentions in China, and offers methods for public transit demand analysis. This paper traces the history of methods for travel mode choice and travel demand forecasting. Based on Stated Preference Survey, individual characteristic and travelers intentions criteria are discussed and the effects of public transit choice are derived. Travel mode choice model is established on the basis of the surveyed data of Cixi in China. In the model criteria in public transit choice and travel mode split are quantified. Two cities, Cixi and Xiamen, are compared in terms of their attitude to improving public transportation and strategy of public transit priority is seperately proposed for them.