层次分析法在土地利用总体规划用地指标分解中的应用——以海南省为例

Application of Hierarchy Analysis Method in Decomposing Land Use Indices of Overall Land Use Planning

分解规划确定的城镇用地规模控制指标是省级土地利用总体规划的主要任务之一。科学地分解指标，减少分解指标中的主观随意性，是规划今后顺利实施的前提条件。以海南省为例，探讨了层次分析法在省级土地利用总体规划中的应用。选取规划目标年非农人口增长预测值、非农业产值增长预测值、现状每公顷城镇用地承载人口、现状亿元非农业产值所需城镇用地等4个因素，作为决定各地区城镇用地指标分配权重的准则，通过分析计算得出各地区规划目标年城镇用地指标分配权重值。用1996～2005年数据对该方法进行验证，结果显示应用该方法所得权重分配同实际权重分配一致性较好。考虑到未来经济社会发展中存在着一定的不确定性，在实际应用中应根据规划期内各地区重点项目的布局情况对计算出的各地区分配权重进行适当的调整。

One main task in provincial overall land use planning was to decompose the control indices of town land use scale confirmed by the planning. Decomposing the indices scientifically and reducing subjective arbitrariness in index decomposition were preconditions of implementing the planning smoothly in future. Taking Hainan province as an example, the application of hierarchy analysis method in provincial overall land use planning was discussed. 4 factors of prediction value of non-agricultural population, production value increase of non-agriculture, present carrying population per hectare town land and present town land required for the non-agricultaral production value at a hundred million yuan level in the aim year in planning were selected as guide lines to decide assignment weights of town land indices in various areas, the values of which were obtained through analysis and calculation in the aim year. The method was validated with data in 1995 - 2006, and the results showed that the weight assignment obtained by using the method accorded with the practical weight assignment better. In view of some uncertainty in the future development of society and economy, the calculated assignment weights in various areas should be adjusted properly according to the distribution status of key items in areas in the planning period in the practical application.