摘要
公共交通需求分析是进行公共交通规划、设计、建设、管理的基础和依据.在分析几种常用公共交通需求分析方法的基础上,将协整理论引入公共交通需求分析中,然后分析了公共交通需求与人口、劳动力就业数量、石油价格之间的关系并进行了实证分析.结果表明:公共交通需求与劳动力就业数量之间存在协整关系,建立误差修正模型后进行预测,发现模型具有较好的预测效果.
The analysis of public transport demand is the basis of public transport＇s planning, designing, building and managing. Based on the analyzing of some traditional methods, the co-integration theory was applied in the public transport volume forecasting. The authors analyzed the relationships among the public transport demand, population, work force and oil price in London, and the results showed that there is a co-integration relationship between the London public transport demand and the work force. In addition, an error correction model based on co-integration theory for forecasting the public transport volume was built and it exhibits a good performance.
出处
《河北工业大学学报》
CAS
2007年第6期94-98,共5页
Journal of Hebei University of Technology
基金
国家自然科学基金(70671073)
关键词
协整
交通需求
公共交通
co-integration
transport demand
public transport
