城市埋地燃气管道模糊故障树分析

Fuzzy fault tree analysis of urban underground gas pipelines

文章采用故障树分析法,对引起城市埋地燃气管道失效的各个因素进行系统分析,建立了埋地燃气管道失效故障树;利用VB编程,采用Fussel-Vesely算法得到引起管道失效的104个最小割集;采用专家判断和模糊集理论结合的方法,评估故障树底事件的模糊发生概率;并以"强度设计不合理"为例,计算出其模糊发生概率为6.89×10-4;通过定量分析,计算得到故障树顶事件的发生概率为5.43×10-2及各底事件的重要度。

Systematic analysis of the factors which cause the failure of the underground gas pipehnes m Fuzhou City is made with the theory of fault tree analysis, and a fault tree is established. By using the VB program, 104 minimum cut sets are obtained by the method of Fussel-Vesely. The expert estimation method is combined with the fuzzy set theory to assess the fuzzy probability of happening of the base events. The calculation process of ＂unreasonable design of strength＂ , which is one of the base events, is given as an example. Through quantitative analysis, the obtained fuzzy probability of happening of the top event is 5.43 × 10^-2 , and the importance degree of all base events are also presented.