装载机销售量的优化Verhulst直接模型研究

Verhulst Direct Optimum GM(1,1) Model and Its Application to Loader Sales Predicting

利用灰色系统理论,研究了装载机销售量的优化Verhulst GM(1,1)直接模型,该模型不需要累加生成和累减生成,适合于等间距和非等间距数据建模.计算实例表明,该预测模型有更好的适应性和更高的精度,使用方便,值得推广使用.表1,参9.

Based on the grey system theory, the Verhulst direct GM（ 1,1 ） model for loader sales predicting was built which extended equal interval to non-equal-interval and suited for general data modeling and estimating parameters of direct Verhulst GM（ 1,1 ）through optimum the background value. The new model need not pre-process the primitive data, accumulated generating operation （AGO） and inverse accumulated generating operation （IAGO）. It was suited for equal and non-equal interval data modeling. Its calculation was simple, higher accuracy and used convenient. The example showed that the new model is simple and practical. The new model is worth expanding and applying in loader sales predicting, 1tab., 9refs.