AR(p)模型在中国总人口预测中的应用

Application of AR(p) model on forecast of population in China

利用AR(p)模型对我国总人口进行了动态预测.通过实证分析,对模型进行了检验,短期预测误差较小,应用效果比较符合实际。

In this paper, AR（p） model based on the theory of the time series analysis were applied to dy-namic forecast the total population in our country. The results gotten through empirical analysis of the test model showed that the short - term forecast error was small and effective.