中美双边贸易中本地市场效应估计——兼论中国的贸易政策取向

Measuring the Home Market Effects between Sino-US Bilateral Trade: On Chinese Trade Policy Orientation

在新贸易理论框架下,本地市场效应是比较优势的一个重要来源。借鉴Schumacher(2003)的引力模型方法对中美双边贸易的估计表明,在10大类产品当中有7类存在显著的本地市场效应,在35个两位数制造业行业当中有16个存在显著的本地市场效应。这表明,本地市场效应已经成为中国对美出口最重要的比较优势源泉之一。其政策含义在于,中国的贸易政策应该由单纯偏向外部市场转到内外并重的方向上来。

The Home Market Effects (HME) is a very important source of comparative advantages under the framework of New Trade Theory. According to Schumacher (2003)′ gravity model, this paper measured the HME between Sino-US bilateral trade and shows that, there exists the HME in seven products among ten products, and in thirty-five manufactures there are sixteen industrial roducts have the HME. Therefore, the HME is one of the most important source of comparative advantages which causes to export from China to America. This means that Chinese trade policy should be changed from external market into balance between external and internel market.