中东伊斯兰力量掌权前景分析

Analysis of the Prospect for the Islamic Forces to Seizing Power in the Middle East

1979年伊朗伊斯兰革命成功后,中东出现了伊斯兰力量夺权的浪潮。总体来看,伊斯兰组织采取了四种策略,即政变、恐怖袭击、内战或者革命以及参加民主选举。由于各国执政者对军队的严密控制,除苏丹这个特例外,政变从未成功。恐怖袭击虽能破坏社会秩序,但无法动摇政权的根基。伊朗革命具有极强的特殊性,别国无法成功复制。而大多数中东国家中央政府相对强大,不具备发生内战的条件。因此,在中东国家实行政治改革后,参加民主选举成为获取权力最为现实可行的方式。在此情况下,越来越多的伊斯兰组织将会放弃暴力夺权的方式,淡化意识形态的色彩,与其他世俗政治派别一起公平竞争国家权力。

After the success of the Iranian Islamic Revolution in 1979, Islamic forces try to seize power in the Middle East. On the whole, Islamic orgnizations adopt four tactics： coup detat, terror attack, civil war or revolution and democracy. Since the rulers in every country control the army tightly, coup detat was never successful except Sudan. Although terror attack can destroy social order, it can not shake the basis of the regimes. Iranian revolution is so unique that it can not be copied successfully in other countries. The central government of most countries in the Middle East is relatively powerful, and it is impossible for civil war to break out. So, democracy is the most feasible way. Under the congdition, more and more Islamic parties will abandon violent ways and fairly vie with other political force for the state power by election.