基于APIOBPCS模式VMI下牛鞭效应仿真研究

Bullwhip Effect Simulation Research Based APIOBPCS & VMI

运用系统动力学构建基于APIOBPCS采购模式和供应商管理库存的七成员供应链模型,通过该模型研究8个因素对牛鞭效应的影响。研究表明,平滑指数越小牛鞭效应越弱;库存初始值影响牛鞭效应的具体数值,但不能根本改变牛鞭效应;牛鞭效应受APIOBPCS模式库存调节系数影响巨大,DE-APIOBPCS模式下牛鞭效应相对较弱;在库存调节系数设定为1、某成员的所有下游成员提前期已经确定的前提下,该成员需求的标准方差只与紧邻上游成员的提前期有关,其余成员的提前期对该成员需求标准方差没有影响;库存检查周期越短牛鞭效应越弱;在供应链信息共享以及成员合作的前提下,瓶颈取适当值情况下的牛鞭效应与没有瓶颈情况下的牛鞭效应相比,前者更小;最低采购数量影响牛鞭效应,并且牛鞭效应对此因素表现出比较强的敏感性。

The seven members supply chain model based APIOBPCS and VMI is constructed by system dynamics. The effects of eight factors are researched in this model. The research shows ： the smaller smooth ratio is, the weaker bullwhip effect is; the initial inventory quantity can change the value of bullwhip effect, but it can not change bullwhip effect drastically; tbe influence of inventory adjustment ratio in APIOBPCS pattern is strong; the influence of inventory adjustment ratio in DE-APIOBPCS pattern is weak; if inventory adjustment ratio equals to one, and one member＇s all downstream members＇ lead time is constant, demand＇s standard devi- ation of this member is related to the proximate upstream member＇s lead time, while the other members lead time can not influence it anymore; tbe shorter the inventory check cycle is, the weaker bullwhip effect will be; if there is a constraint in supply chain and the information is shared, the bullwhip effect is weaker at appropriate constraint condition than no constraint condition; the minimum purchase quantity can influence the bullwhip effect, and at the same time the bullwhip effect is sensitive to this factor.