退田还湖政策的博弈分析

Game Analysis of the Policy of Returning Farmland to Lake

运用博弈论(Game theory)方法,探索退田还湖所涉及的利益主体之间尤其是移民安置中的的博弈关系。研究表明:退田还湖的实施以及移民安置工作必须兼顾各级地方政府以及农民的利益,必须从经济理性人的角度寻找博弈各方的行动动机,并以此为依据制订政策。单凭地方政府的力量不能完成退田还湖工程,中央政府的介入是必要的,并且要起主导作用;但单独依靠中央投入不能实现资源的最优配置。中央或上级政府应当综合考虑自身的生态防洪效益与基层政府和农民的切身经济利益,重点放在改变地方经济状况上,通过各种长期稳定的优惠政策提高基层政府主动接纳移民的积极性,这样才能顺利完成该工程。

The method of game theory was applied to explore the game relation among all the parties involved in the course of returning farmland to lake and in immigrant resettlement which chose the Dongting Lake Region as an example. The Dongting Lake region locates at the south of Jing river, middle reaches of Yangtze River, the north of Hunan Province. It is a huge alluvial plain around the Dongting Lake, which total area is 18 780 km2, and 15 200 km^2 in the Hunan Province accounting for 80.9% of total area,3 580 km^2 in Hubei Province accounting for 19.1% of total area. It is the commodity grain base and industry material base in China and possesses important economical station, but the Dongting Lake Region is also affected by very frequent and serious flood - waterloggy disaster in China. The results showed that the profits of local governments and peasants must be considered in the project of returning farmland to lake and the work of immigrant resettlement, the action motive of each game party must be sought in terms of Economic Rational People, and appropriate policy must be established on the basis of game analysis. The returning farmland to lake engineering would not be brought to success only depending on the local government investment, the investment from the center government was necessary and served for a dominant function. But the most optimum distribution of resovces would not be achived only depending on the center government investment. The center government, or the superior government, should consider its ecological benefit of flood prevention and economic benefit of the local governments and the peasants in a comprehensive way. To develop local economic andenhance the enthusiasm of the local government admitting the immigrant through implementing are long and steady good policy, so the project of returning farmland to lake could be carried on in proper sequence . It is not only unreasonable to increase the probability that the local governments admit the immigrant through reducing the cost of immigrant resettlement, but also damaging the benefit of the immigrant. In order to enhance the enthusiasm of the local government admitting the immigrant, the superior governments should consider the benefit of local governments, carry out the favourable policy continuously and stably, and dismiss all doublts of the local government. Those are the ultimate way to solve the immigrant problems.