基于系统动力学模型的松花江水污染事故水质模拟

Simulation of water quality for Songhua river water pollution accident using a one-dimensional water quality simulation model based system dynamics.

将系统动力学应用于突发水污染事故的水质模拟,利用其擅长研究动态、非线性复杂系统的特点,构建一维水质模拟的系统动力学模型,结合松花江特大水污染事故的现场监测数据进行模型参数率定以及模型验证.结果表明,所建立的模型能够模拟松花江水污染事故中硝基苯浓度随时间的变化,特别是对硝基苯的浓度峰值与峰值出现时间的模拟效果较好.通过对参数纵向水流流速(u)、纵向弥散系数(E)和衰减速率系数(k)的调整,进行情景模拟,可为应急措施方案的优选提供量化参考的依据.

System dynamics was applied to rapid-onset water pollution accident using a one-dimensional water quality simulation model. On the spot monitored data in Songhua river water pollution accident were used for model parameters calibration and model validation. The constructed model could simulate the concentration change of nitrobenzene with time in Songhua river water pollution accident, especially for the peak concentration of nitrobenzene and the time when the peak concentration appeared, the simulated value and monitored value corresponded very well; the scenarios simulation could be made by adjusting the parameters of u, E and k, then provide decision-makers with quantitative information to optimize the related emergency response measures.