基于贸易收支数据的美国贸易逆差与美元汇率相互关系研究

Interrelation between the U.S.Trade Deficit and USD Exchange Rate: An Analysis Based on Trade Data between the U.S.and its Major Trade Partners

通过选择美国与中国、日本、加拿大、英国和欧元区11国等美国主要贸易伙伴的双边贸易数据作为样本,研究美国的双边贸易逆差与美元汇率之间的关系。实证分析表明,美国对主要贸易伙伴国的双边贸易收支与美元汇率没有实质性联系。美国逼迫其它货币升值没有也不能缓解美国的贸易逆差问题,同样,美国逼迫人民币升值也不能缓解美中双边贸易失衡问题。

Based on the sample data of bilateral trade balance between the U.S. and its main trade partners including China, Japan, Canada, United Kingdom and 11 Euro-zone countries , this paper analyses interrelation between the U.S. bilateral trade deficits and USD exchange rates. The empirical research indicates that there are no substantive relation between bilateral trade balance and US dollar exchange rate. The American pressure on other countries to revaluate their currency has not and will not alleviate US trade deficits. Similarly, the pressure on China to appreciate RMB will not be able to alleviate the imbalance between America and China.