交通事故的灰色预测模型及其实证研究

Traffic Accident's Gray Forecast Model and Empirical Study

灰色系统理论中的灰色预测模型,论述了交通事故系统的灰色性,并采用GM(1,1)灰色预测模型对交通事故进行实证研究。根据某地区交通事故的统计数据建立灰色动态数列预测模型。灰色预测模型是一个微分方程,称为GM模型(GREYMODEL)。GM(1,1)则是1阶的,1个变量的微分方程型模型,这种模型与数理统计的方法比较,求解较易,计算量小,精度较高。

In the grey system theory the gray forecast model, elaborated traffic accident system＇s pessimistic, adopts GM （1,1） the gray forecast model to conduct the empirical study to the traffic accident. According to some local traffic accident statistical data establishment gray dynamic data forecast model. The gray forecast model is a differential equation, is called the GM model （GREY MODEL）.GM （1,1） is first-order, 1 variable＇s differential equation model, this kind of model and mathematical statistic＇s method is quite easy to solve, the computation load is small, the precision is high.