中国大陆邪教发展趋势预测

Forecasting the Trend of Development of Chinese Mainland Cults

科学的预测应当是建立在事物发展客观规律基础上的科学推断。对邪教发展趋势进行预测,不仅要有科学的依据,而且必须采用一定的预测方法,如德尔菲法(也称专家意见法)、回归分析预测法、类推法、抽样调查法等。预测结果显示,反邪教斗争必将是一场"持久战"而不可能速决,是一个渐进式的、"步步为营"再逐渐扩散的进程。邪教发展变化有几种可能:一是种类更新;二是手段、方法向国际性、年轻化、知识化、多元化、暴力化方向发展;三是对邪教犯罪的控制应关注金融界、"三农问题"、"腐败问题"、"下岗待业"、"收入差距过大"、"乱收费"等方面。

The scientific forecast must be establish in the things develop rule science inference. Not only need have the scientific basis to the cults trend of development＇s predict that but must have certain forecast technique;If Delphi illegal also calls the expert advice law; Regression analysis forecast law; Analogy law; Sampling method and so on. The forecasting result showed： Every cults struggle will certainly to be ＂the protracted war＂, is an evolution like, ＂fortifies at every step＂ the process that expands gradually. The cults development change has several kind of possibilities; First, type renewal; Second, the method, the method to the internationalization, the youth oriented, the knowledge-based, the multiplication, the violence direction develop; Third, must pay attention to the financial circles to the cults crime＇s control, ＂three agricultural questions＂, ＂the problem of corruption＂, ＂to come off sentry duty to wait for jobs＂, ＂the income differential to be oversized＂, ＂the unreasonable service＂ and so on aspects.