基于IOWGA的组合模型在城镇居民收入中的研究

Research on the Income of Urban Residents Based on the Combination Forecasting Model of IOWGA

为提高城镇居民收入水平的预测精度,在对陕西省城镇居民收入水平现状进行了分析的基础上分别建立了灰色Verhulst模型和三次指数平滑模型.基于IOWGA(诱导有序几何加权平均)算子的组合预测模型对陕西省城镇居民人均可支配收入进行了预测.结果表明,该模型克服单一预测模型的不足、预测误差较小,可以作为陕西省城镇居民收入水平预测的有效工具.

The grey Verhulst model and cubic exponential smoothing model are built respectively based on the analyses of income level of urban residents of Shaanxi province in order to improve the predictive precisions of income level of urban residents. The combination forecasting model based on induced ordered weighted geometric averaging （IOWGA） is established to predict the value of per capital disposable income of the urban residents. Disadvantages of single model is overcome by use of the model which gives a little forecasting error and predicts the value of per capital disposable income of urban residents of Shaanxi province effectively.