当前日本景气恢复的特点及其成因——与“伊奘诺景气”的比较分析

Characteristics and Causes of the Current Japanese Economic Recovery Boom——Comparative Analysis with Izanagi Boom

目前正在恢复中的日本经济景气,是战后日本持续时间最长的景气,它与另一次大型景气—"伊奘诺景气"相比。具有许多不同的特点:两次景气恢复中各自所面临的障碍不同;劳动供求关系发生了变化;设备投资恢复各自有不同的起点;消费需求的拉动作用呈现差异;企业经营的环境明显改变;景气外部的国际竞争格局也发生了变化。在此次经济从萧条到恢复的过程中,日本经济增长中的现代经济周期特征体现得更加明显,即周期频率低、周期时间长、转折平缓。目前日本的景气恢复还有许多不确定因素,即长期利率可能上升的影响和美国市场的不确定性等。

Japan previous Izanagi is experiencing the biggest recovery boom since the World War II. When comparing with the Boom, this current boom exhibits different features in hindering factors, demand and supply in labor market, equipment investment, consumption, business environment, and the pattern of international competition. The process of recovery from recession exhibits some significant features of modem economic cycles, namely low frequency, long interval and flat turning. The recovery is influenced by some uncertain factors, i.e. , the possibility of a rise in long - term interest rates and uncertainties about the American market.