电力市场中发电厂报价评估研究

Evaluation of power plant bidding tariff in electricity market

综合分析了报价评估的原理和方法,结合发电商所处的市场环境、市场特点及其集团公司的目标期望等因素,提出了构建发电商报价预评估和后评估综合的指标体系,并在此基础上探讨了报价评估定量分析方法。提出了按照评估对象、评估内容和主题构建预评估和后评估指标体系框架的方法。两者的评估对象为电厂,评估内容为电量、电价和电费。预评估主题的指标选取中标电量完成率、中标电价接近率和电费期望率,后评估指标增加约束电量比和中标电价提升率。在2类评估指标中引入蒙特卡罗随机模拟的方法确定权重。

The principle and methods of bidding evaluation are analyzed and an indicator system is put forward for pre- and post- evaluations,which considers the factors of market environment, features and expected goal. Based on it,the quantitative analysis is discussed. The way to build the indicator system framework according to its subject,content and index is presented,where the subject is power plants, the contents are quantity, tariff and charge of electricity, the indicators of pre - evaluation are bidding quantity fulfillment rate,bidding tariff approach rate and charge expectation rate,and the indicators of post-evaluation are added with constrained quantity rate and tariff uplift rate. Montle Carlo method for stochastic simulation is introduced to determine index weights.