广东春季水资源的时空分布特征和预测研究

THE STUDY OF SPATIAL-TEMPORAL DISTRIBUTION CHARACTERISTICS AND PREDICTION OF SPRING WATER RESOURCES IN GUANGDONG

取广东分布较为均匀的48个气象观测站50年的月平均气温和降水量资料,用高桥浩一郎公式算得广东春季水资源量,用主分量分析计算它的主分量及相应的特征向量。利用滑动平均、气候变率、趋势分析和功率谱分析等方法较详细分析了该水资源场的前4个主分量的时间变化特征,用主分量逐步回归预测模型对其分布做预测。结果表明:广东春季水资源的平均分布出现3个丰盛中心和2个缺乏中心。它含有4种基本分布类型,即全广东丰盛(缺乏)型,东缺乏(丰盛)西丰盛(缺乏)型,从北到南丰盛(缺乏)、缺乏(丰盛)相间型以及北部到中部丰盛(缺乏)型,东南部和西南部缺乏(丰盛)型。它们的气候变率不明显,第1主分量含有3阶时间幂函数变化趋势,揭示出广东春季水资源1950年代～1960年代初较为缺乏,1970年代初～1990年代中较为丰盛,以后又呈减少趋势。场的时间平均及第1～4主分量没有明显的突变事件存在。功率谱分析表明,第1、3、4主分量存在2.0～5.0 a振荡周期。对2004～2006年广东春季水资源的类型和分布预测表明:2004年为Ⅰb型,其分布为全省水资源严重缺乏型态,类型和分布的预测都与实测结果完全一致。预测2005年为丰、缺相间的Ⅲb型,分布形势为南北向丰、缺相间的带状,实测也是Ⅲb型,但具体的丰、缺分布区域与预测的分布区域没有对应。预测2006年为Ⅰd型和分布为全省严重缺乏型态,实测是西部缺乏东部丰盛,显然东部的预测是不正确的。后两年预测失败的原因可能与海温的春季障碍有关。

Based on 50-year monthly temperature and rainfall data of 48 stations in Guangdong province, the physical evaporation of Guangdong in spring is calculated with Gaoqiao equation and their eigenvectors and principal components are computed by empirical orthogonal function. The properties of temporal variation of the first four principal components are analyzed by using the methods of moving averages and climatic variability and the tendency and power spectrum. The principal component-stepwise regression model is used to predict the distribution of Guangdong water resources in spring. The results show that the mean distribution of Guangdong water resource in spring are marked by three centers of sufficient amount and two centers of insufficient amount. For the distribution of Guangdong water resource in spring, there are four basic patterns. The spring water resources of Guangdong do not have climatic variability, with the first principal component showing tendency variation by three orders of power function It is revealed that the water resources are insufficient from 1950 s to early 1970 s but sufficient from early 1970 s to mid-1990 s, before showing decreasing tendency again. Power spectrum analysis shows that the 1st, 3rd and 4th principal components have oscillation periods of 2.0-5.0 a. Next is a prediction of the distribution of Guangdong water resources in spring. For 2004, the type is Ⅰ b and the distribution is serious insufficient in the whole province, and the observation agrees with the prediction exactly. For 2005, the type is Ⅲb, the same as the reality, but the distribution does not agree with the observation. For 2006, the type is Ⅰ d and the distribution is the serious insufficient across the whole province, but the observation is that there is insufficient amount in the west but sufficient amount in the east. The reason why the prediction of the last two years are not successful may be related to spring barrier of sea temperature.