逆延华南气温序列方法的探讨

A STUDY OF THE COUNTERDEDUCTIVE METHOD FOR THE TEMPERATURE SEQUENCE OF SOUTH CHINA

本文用香港1884～1983年逐年1月平均气温代表冬温，把它的年际变化时间序列作为原样本进行了谱分析，从中提取有代表性的周期波，用谐波分析和方差分析法，对选出来的周期波逆延、迭加、拟合成新的冬温时间序列（1983～1584）．用地方志的冻灾史料进行检验，结果95％以上的冻灾年与新序列的冷冬年对应；冬季气温多出现连续性冷冬年，史料和新序列也有很好的一致性．

According to modern temperature variation with time, a climatic sequence is set up from the standpoint of fluctuation. The basis of the counterdeductive study of temperature sequence is as follows: 1) The climatic variation shows that climate fluctuates in different scales of time and space; 2) Cold and warm climate in China alternate periodically; 3) The information about the fluctuations of different periods can be resolved from meteorological element sequence. With every Junuary temperature of Hong Kong from 1884 to 1983 as the average winter temperature,its interannual fluctuation is taken as an original sample to be analysed. Some representative periodical waves are abstracted from the analysis of spectrum, and a new temperature sequence from 1983 to 1584 is obtained, while by the methods of variance and harmonic analyses the information of the periodical waves is counterdeducted to the year 1584. The average value of the new temperature sequence is 0. 2136℃ larger than that of the original sample. The years with winter temperature lower than the average value are presumed as the cold winter years,otherwise as the warm. It is found that more than 95 percent of the freezing calamities in historical records are in correspondance with the cold winter years, and the historical cold winter periods are in good agreement with those of the new sequence, both the new sequence and the original sample show that each period of cold winter years lasts for 7-12 years. For the above reasons, it is considered that the counterdeductive temperature sequence should have certain reality and significance for the analysis of climatic variation.