朔州市近45 a气温变化及对农业生产的影响

Temperature Variation Characteristic of Shuozhou in Recent 45 Years and Its Effects on Agricultural Production

利用1961～2005年朔州市6个气象观测站的气温资料,用气候倾向率、滑动平均等方法,对朔州市近45a气温变化特征作了统计分析。结果表明:45a来,朔州市的年平均气温、年平均最高气温、年平均最低气温自20世纪70年代中期以来呈上升趋势,平均气温以0.43℃/10a的速度上升;平均最低气温升温幅度明显高于平均最高气温;进入20世纪90年代后,这种趋势有所加快,尤其以冬季升温最为明显。1987年以来朔州相继出现了15个暖冬,较强的暖冬年份出现在1995年以后。气候变暖对农业生产互有利弊。如何趋利避害,确保当地农业高产优产是需要进一步研究的问题。

Based on the annual average air temperature data during 1961-2005 from six stations in Shuozhou,the air temperature change characteristics were analyzed statistically with methods such as climate inclination rate and sliding average in recent 45 years.The result indicated that during the past 45 years,the annual mean temperature,the annual mean maximum temperature and the annual mean minimum temperature presented an uptrend since the middle of the 1970s,and the annual mean temperature rose with the rate of 0.43℃/10 a,in addition,the mean minimum temperature rise overtopped the mean maximum temperature obviously.This uptrend is accelerated to some extent after the 1990s,especially obvious in winter＇s temperature.There have been 15 warm winters since 1987 in Shuozhou,with the most typical ones occurring after 1995.The plant diseases and insect pests tended to be more serious with climate warming,so it is necessary to study how to ensure high production and quality of the local agriculture.