基于CGE和EFA的中国能源使用安全测度

Measurement of Energy Use Security of China based on CGE and EFA Approaches

全球生态环境的日益恶化和能源使用对环境产生的巨大影响使能源使用安全问题受到各国的广泛关注。鉴于经济、社会、能源和环境的复杂关系,本文在拓展可计量均衡模型(CGE)原有研究的基础上,借助生态足迹分析法(EFA)的概念,构建能源CGE模型和能源使用安全测度框架,将能源的最终需求、初始能源转换矩阵、能源生态足迹转换率和本区域的能源生态承载力联系在一起,通过对比能源生态承载力和生态足迹,分析能源使用安全状况。对中国1962年至2002年能源使用安全测度,结果显示,这40多年里,从人均和总量水平来看,能源生态承载力基本呈逐年下降趋势,而能源生态足迹呈逐年上升趋势,并且,能源人均生态承载力的下降速度快于能源人均生态足迹的上升速度,最终造成能源生态赤字的出现及不断扩大的演变规律,说明我国能源使用安全状况越来越令人担忧。要扭转这种不利的发展态势,也应该从能源使用的环境影响和环境容量两个方面入手,期望通过逐步减少能源使用的环境影响和提高环境质量,全方位加强我国的能源使用安全。

The great attentions have been paid to energy use security worldwide with the rapid degradation of natural environment and increased impacts of energy use on human being. However, many researches on energy use security have focused on qualitative and static analysis. In consideration of the complicated relationship among economy, society, energy and environment, the Computable General Equilibrium （CGE） and Ecological Footprint Analysis （EFA） are introduced to build energy CGE model and calculation framework in which the linkages among the final consumption of goods and services, final energy consumption, and primary energy requirements are explicitly taken into account. This would contribute to policy making for reducing energy footprints for a better energy use safety. In this paper, energy footprints is estimated according to the primary energies embodied in the goods and services consumed by a defined population group, and energy footprint of the country is simulated from 1962 to 2002. To illustrate what should be improved in the future, the energy biological capacity （EBC） and energy ecological footprint （EEF） are computed. It is concluded that the energy use security of China is unsatisfactory because the EBC decreased from 677.7279million ha in 1962 to 632.5026 million ha in 2002, while the EEF increased from 120. 1889 million ha in 1962 to 969.9486 million ha in 2002. The rate of the EBC decrease is higher than the EEF increase, leading to an enlarged energy ecological deficit. Therefore, mitigating the impacts of energy use on environment and enhancing environment carrying capacity through improving and optimizing energy structure, raising energy efficiency, correctly dealing with the relationships among economical growth, energy use, and environmental protection, establishing a sustainable energy system would be countermeasures for ensuring China＇s energy security.