摘要
分析了2003～2006年怀化市卷烟市场的需求变化规律，采用时间序列分解模型对怀化市烟草公司历史销售数据进行了测算，发现怀化市卷烟市场需求的变化呈现明显的趋势特征、季节波动和周期性，预测得出该市场2007年各月卷烟需求量。
In order to study the trend of cigarette demand in Huaihua , time series decomposition model is used to analyze historical sale data from Huaihua Tobacco Company. It was found that the trend was characterized by obvious tendency characteristicse, g. season undulation and periodicity. It was used to forecasts monthty demand of cigarette in this market, The model can ales be adapted to other cigarette markets, i.e. a city, a province and the whole country.
出处
《中国烟草学报》
EI
CAS
CSCD
2007年第6期51-56,共6页
Acta Tabacaria Sinica
关键词
时间序列
卷烟
需求
预测
time series decomposition model
cigarette
demand
forecast
