物候模型研究进展

Research progress on phenological models

近年来随着全球气候变暖,物候提前,物候学的研究越来越受到人们的关注。通过建立物候模型使物候期的预知成为可能,从而为生产实践活动提供依据和指导。本文探讨了物候模型研究的意义,总结了影响植物和昆虫物候的温度、水分、光和养分等主要环境因子的作用。根据国内外物候模型的研究现状,重点介绍了作物、树木、植被和昆虫4类物候模型的研究内容和进展。作物物候模型注重生理生态过程;树木物候模型以统计方法为主,但近期也有尝试将激素水平作为物候的决定因素;植被物候模型以遥感技术的应用为发展趋势;昆虫物候模型则进一步对发育起点的确定和对温度因子的修正,GIS的引入将昆虫物候模型的应用范围扩大。最后指出了目前物候模型研究中存在的问题。

With the global warming and the advance of phenophases, the research of phenology has been drawing more and more attention in recent years. It is possible to make the prediction of phenophases by establishing phenological models, and to provide the guidance for many practical activities consequently. This paper discussed the significance of the research on phenological models, and reviewed the effects of main environmental factors, e. g., temperature, water, light, and nutrients, on the phenology of plants and insects. The research content and progress of four types of phenological models including crop, tree, vegetation and insect were introduced, based on the present status of both domestic and foreign researches. Crop phenological models paid more attention to the physiological and ecological processes; tree phenological models mainly adopted statistic methods, and recently, phytohormone level was tried to adopt as the decisive factor for the phenology; vegetation phenological models took the application of remote sensing technology as a developing tendency; and insect phenological models did further determination of development threshold and modification of temperature factors, and the introduction of GIS enlarged the application range of insect phenology models. The shortages in the present researches on phenological models were pointed out.