三路无信号交叉口事故预测模型分析

Research on the Crash Prediction Model of Three-phase Unsignalized Intersection

交叉口是路网中重要的结点和枢纽,在路网中发挥着非常重要的功能.交叉口的安全性直接关系到路网整体的安全性能,关系到路网运行效率的发挥.以三路无信号交叉口为研究对象,采用相关分析与AIC原则分析方法,建立基于概率模型的平原区无信号三路交叉口事故预测模型.模型有助于三路无信号交叉口安全分析,探究交通事故的发生规律.

Intersection is the note of the road net and plays an important role in the road net. The safety of the intersection is directly concerned with the safety of the road net and the efficiency of the net. The subject of the article is three-phase unsignalized intersection control in highway system. The correlation analysis and AIC principle analysis are applied to building the crash prediction model of three-phase unsignalized intersection in the plain based on the probability model. The crash prediction model is useful in the analysis of the safety of the intersection and the exploring the law of the crash occurrence.