摘要
Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition. It is indicated that whenΔU200-ΔU850 >0 in the eastern tropical Pacific andΔU200-ΔU850 <0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.
Relationships between large-scale zonal wind anomalies and annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclones and possible mechanisms are investigated with the methods of correlation and composition. It is indicated that when A U2oo- A U850 〉0 in the eastern tropical Pacific and A U2oo- A U850 〈0 in western tropical Pacific, the Walker cell is stronger in the Pacific tropical region and the annual frequency of NW Pacific tropical cyclone are above normal. In the years with zonal wind anomalies, the circulation of high and low troposphere and the vertical motions in the troposphere have significant characteristics. In the time scale of short-range climate prediction, zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere are useful as a preliminary signal of the annual frequency prediction of NW Pacific tropical cyclones.
基金
Research on predictive signals and methods for short-short climate of annual frequency oftyphoons, a project from the research fund on typhoons of 2003 – 2004 at Shanghai Typhoon Institute
关键词
大气环流
对流层
热带
频率
zonal wind anomalies in high and low troposphere
annual frequency of tropical cyclone
short-rangeclimatc prediction
