级序分析方法对系统演化动态特性的扭曲

The distortion of system dynamic characteristics by rank ordering

作为一种统计方法,"级序分析"由于其成功克服了样本数量不足的问题而被引入到地震学等学科的理论研究与实践当中,并得到了广泛应用.本研究认为,级序分析方法在应用过程中存在一定的局限性.主要表现在:原始时间序列中蕴涵着系统演化的动态信息,而按大小排序的"级序分析方法"会将原始序列中这些有价值的信息过滤掉,从而造成对系统演化动态特性的扭曲.本文通过砂堆实验获取的原始时间序列,采用排序与不排序两种方式,利用R/S分析方法证明了级序分析方法可能会损失系统隐含的动态信息而扭曲系统演化动态特性.

Rank ordering, as a kind of statistics method, has been extensively applied in practice and research on seis mology etc for its overcoming the insufficiency of sample size. This paper proposes that the original time sequence im plicates dynamic information of the system evolvement, but rank ordering has filtered the dynamic information in orig inal sequence and distorted the dynamic characteristic of the system evolvement. Based on the original sequence ob tained from sand pile experiment, our viewpoint has been proved by means of the R/S analysis method in this paper.