错判中错觉恐慌 错判中错位调整——2007年第3季度国际金融市场分析预测

Illusion Panic in the False Judgment,Ill-positioning Adjustment in the False Judgment An Analysis and Projection for International Financial Market of the 3rd Quarter

从宏观角度看,2007年第3季度国际金融市场呈现三大新变化:价格风险已经逐渐转变为制度风险,金融产品风险转为资源价格风险,经济全球化转为投资全球化。2007年第3季度,国际金融市场的主要表现是美国次级债问题引发全球股市暴跌,对美国经济的忧虑扩大;美国货币政策的逆转干扰了欧洲和日本的经济预期;美国经济悲观预期引发美元信用危机,国际黄金价格上涨扩大;国家战略筹划与短期突发因素难以消除,国际石油价格上涨扩大;国际货币体系结构调整中美元前景不确定,国际金融风险扩大;等等。预计2007年第4季度,国际金融市场将面临较大的风险,全球金融动荡乃至危机发生的可能性增加。

From the macro point of view, there are three new changes in international financial market of the 3rd quarter in 2007： price risk has been gradually changed into institutional risk; financial product risk has been changed quarter, standard into resource price risk; and economy globalization has been converted to investment globalization. In this the main exhibition of international financial market is abrupt fall of global stock market resulted from sub- debt problems in the U. S. with an expanded worry of the American economy ; the revision of the American monetary policy has intervened the economy anticipation of Europe and Japan ; the pessimistic anticipation of the A- merican economy has induced USD credit crisis with enlarged rise of international gold price ; national strategy plan- ning and short - term sudden factors have been difficult to remove with enlarged rise of international petrol oil price ; the prospects of the US Dollar is uncertain in the adjustment of international monetary system with expanded interna- tional financial risk, etc. For projection of the 4th quarter of 2007, there will be bigger risk for the international financial market and the likelihood of global financial turbulence even financial crisis will be enhanced.