货币冲销政策有效性的实证研究:1999-2006年

An Empirical Research on the Effectiveness of Monetary Offset Policy of 1999 to 2006

近几年来,我国外汇储备上升很快,外汇增加转化为基础货币的投放造成国内货币扩张,使得通货膨胀压力大大增加,迫使中央银行不得不加大货币冲销力度。运用向量误差修正模型考查外汇占款与基础货币以及实体经济相关变量的关系,分析我国自东南亚金融危机以来冲销政策的实施状况,结果表明外汇储备对我国的货币投放进而对整个经济影响较大,央行的冲销政策效果显著,但还有待进一步完善。

In recent years, foreign exchange reserve of China has grown rapidly. Conversion of foreign reserve growth into supply of money base has made domestic money expansion, worsening inflation pressure, posing the central bank to intensify the enforcement of money offset policy. By using vector error correction model, checking the relation- ships foreign exchange outstanding, money base and related variants of real economy, an analysis is made on the implementation of offset policy in China since east - southern financial crisis. The result suggests that the impact of foreign exchange reserve of China on money placement in China even the whole economy is rather big, and that the offset policy of the central bank is prominent and, to be improved.