物种潜在分布地预测系统PSDS的设计与实现

Design and implementation of PSDS system, a software for predicting the potential distribution of species

本研究设计并实现了一个基于地理信息系统(GIS)的仅用物种已知分布点数据预测物种潜在分布地的PSDS系统。在这一系统中,通过层次聚类算法对物种已知分布点数据进行处理,减少了异常值对预测结果的影响,从而解决了环境包络模型预测结果过于乐观的问题,在物种已知分布数据较少时也能取得较好的结果。该系统实现了数据加载与导出、图层浏览与显示、生态因子分析与分布地预测、结果展示等功能,操作方便,简单易用。本文以白冠长尾雉(Syrmaticus reevesii)为例,根据4个省的少量已知分布点数据对其在国内的潜在分布地进行了预测,获得了较理想的结果,可为该物种的保护提供科学依据。

It is a critical problem in conservation biology to model the geographic distribution of a given species. Potential Species＇ Distribution System （PSDS）, a new GIS-based system, has been designed and implemented to predict the potential distribution of species by using presence data only. The result, normally overpredicted by traditional Environment Envelope Model, is improved by using hierarchical cluster arithmetic that can reduce the influence caused by outliers. The PSDS system provides functions of data input and output, displaying GIS maps, analyzing the ecological factors of habitat and predicting potential distribution of species, etc. This system is user-friendly and easy to use. As an example, the paper predicts the potential distribution of Syrmaticus reevesii which is one of the endangered species in china by using presence-only data of four provinces, and gets a good result.