摘要
客流预测是客运专线各项工作得以顺利进行的基础研究课题。首先分析了一般客流预测方法的特点,然后按照客运专线客流的形成原因将其分为趋势客流、诱发客流和转移客流,根据各部分客流的自身变化特点,分别采用不同的模型或方法进行预测,最后给出了总体客流量预测的计算方法。
The study on forecast of the passenger traffic volume is the basic one of all researches on passenger-dedicated line. In the article, the character of current methods of passenger flow forecast is introduced firstly. Then the passenger traffic flow of passenger-dedicated line is divided into trend flow, bring out flow and shifting flow by the production factor of each part. The paper adopts certain model to forecast the volume based on the changing character of each part of passengers flow and provides the expressions which predicts the volume of the flow of passengers finally.
出处
《交通科技与经济》
2008年第1期75-76,共2页
Technology & Economy in Areas of Communications
关键词
客运专线
诱发客流
转移客流
预测
passenger-dedicated line
bring out flow
shifting flow
forecast
