灰色系统模型及其经济问题应用

The Gray System Model and Its Economics Application

近年来就业问题已经成为了当代大学生最为烦恼的事,引起了社会各方面的广泛关注,2006年大学毕业生的就业问题更为突出.事实上,社会对大学毕业生的需求所反映出的主要问题是高等教育办学规模和专业结构的问题,而理性地进行高等教育的办学规模调控和专业结构的调整的前提就是客观地把握事实.而在已发表的众多文章中鲜见关于高校人才供求的研究.据此,对高等学校毕业生供求情况的定量分析和预测分析就显得异常重要.本文应用灰色系统理论建立高等学校毕业生供需预测模型DGM(1,1).它为制定解决大学生就矛盾的相关政策、相关措施提供了理论依据.

The problem of employment have already become the greatest burden to the undergraduates in recent years, causing the extensive concern of society, and the employment problem of undergraduate was more serious in 2006. In fact, the key problem reflected by the need of society to undergraduate is that the higher education scale and profession structure, but the reasonableness premise of higher education to adjust the its scale and profession structure is to hold the fact objectively. But seldom papers concerned the supply and demand of undergraduate students. Therefore the quantitative analysis and forecasting of the demand and supply of undergraduate student are of great importance. This paper applies the Gray System Model to the supply and demand of undergraduate student and establishes the model DGM（1, 1）. It provides an theory basis to the related policy regarding solving the contradictory of undergraduate employment.