基于字符串编码克隆选择的建模算法及可靠性预测

Modeling Algorithm Based on String-coding Clone Selection and Reliability Forecasting

提出了一种基于字符串编码克隆选择的建模算法,其核心是通过字符串编码的克隆选择策略在初等函数空间上进化、选择初等函数和函数间的运算关系,构成预测模型,并优化模型参数,实现预测模型形式的自动生成和参数的自适应确定.字符串编码设计使随机生成函数表达式成为可能;克隆选择策略实现了字符串编码抗体的进化训练;对基于字符串编码的克隆选择操作算子设计,增加了种群的多样性,使得不同抗体协同进化,有效避免了进化"早熟"现象。用该算法建立某武器系统可靠度预测模型,实验结果表明:该模型具有较高的精度,为可靠性预测、故障预报与维修奠定了基础.

Modeling algorithm based on string-coding clone selection is put forward. In the algorithm, evolution and choice of function structure, arithmetic relation and parameters are completed in elementary function space with string-coding clone selection, therefore, automatic production of forecasting model structures and adaptive determination of forecasting model parameters are realized. Design of string-coding makes it possible to randomly produce an expression in elementary function space; clone selection strategy achieves evolutionary training of string-coding antibodies. Moreover, by design of clone operator to string-coding antibodies, different antibodies evolve coordinately, diversity of antibodies restrains ＂precocity＂ in evolution. Reliability forecasting model of the weapon system is built uisng the algorithm. Results of experiments show that the forecasting model is of high accuracy, and lays a foundation of reliability forecasting, fault forecasting and maintenance for the control system.