带反馈的多元线性回归法在电力负荷预测中的应用

APPLICATION OF MULTIPLE LINEAR-FEEDBACK REGRESSION ANALYSIS TO ELECTRIC LOAD FORECASTING

多元线性回归方法常用于电力负荷预测中,但是它不能预测非线性问题。我们把误差作为一个新的线性或者非线性的反馈自变量,用在下次的多元线性回归预测中。在理想实验环境下,我们发现这种方法是有效的。在电力负荷预测的实验中采用这种方法,得到了比用多元线性回归法更好的实验结果。

Multiple linear regression analysis is always used in electric load forecasting, yet it cannot forecast nonlinear problems. The multiple linear feedback regression analysis is presented. The deviation is regarded as new linear or nonlinear feedback variable for the next multiple linear regression analysis. Experiment in ideal environment shows that the method is effective. Better result is achieved by the proposed method than the multiple linear regression analysis in electric load forecasting.