管道类连续系统可靠性建模方法

Study on Reliability Modeling of Continuous Systems like Pipeline

以管道这种典型的连续系统可靠性建模为背景,论述了国内外研究现状,通过将连续系统离散成单元(作为一个"串联系统"对待),应用最小次序统计量推导出系统强度的概率密度函数;分析了基于最小次序统计量思想的串联系统相关失效可靠性建模;同时讨论了连续系统材料强度的两种影响因素:材料自身的不均匀性和材料质量的不稳定性.最后建立了管道类连续系统可靠性模型,能够反映单元间的失效相关性,为管道、钢缆等连续系统的可靠性设计与可靠性计算提供依据.

Describes briefly researches on the reliability modeling of continuous systems in recent years, where the pipelines and wire cables are taken typically as examples. Discretizing a continuous system into a number of elements that can be considered as a series system, a probability density function of system strength is derived introducing the minimal order statistics. Discusses the reliability modeling of dependent failure to such series systems and the two influencing factors on their material strength, i.e., the materials＇ inhomogeneity and quality instability . Then, a reliability model is developed for continuous systems such as pipelines, which can reflect the failure-dependence among those elements. The model provides a basis for the reliability design/computation of continuous system including pipeline and wire cables.