地铁人员可用疏散时间模拟

ASET Simulation of Crowd in Metro

人员可用安全疏散时间是衡量公共场所安全性能的重要指标。为了能从定量风险分析的角度考察公共场所的安全疏散性能,引入蒙特卡罗模拟技术。选取天津小白楼地铁系统作为研究对象;建立极限状态方程以刻画地铁人员可用安全疏散时间;最后,通过Matlab提供的M语言编程,实现了蒙特卡罗模拟,得到了与极限状态方程相对应的概率密度函数,累加分布函数和余补累加分布函数。通过余补累加分布函数定量描述了人员在地铁火灾事故中安全逃生的概率。结果表明,蒙特卡罗模拟技术是描述同时具有参数不确定性和模型不确定性的复杂问题的有力工具。

Available safe egress time （ASET） is an important indicator in measuring the security of public buildings. In order to evaluate the safety evacuation capability from the perspective of fixed quantitative risk analysis, the Monte Carlo simulation approach has been eraployed.Firstly, Metro systern in Tianjin, China has been selected as the research object. In addition, the limit state equation has been established to describe the available safe egress time in the metro. Finally through the programming of M - files provided by Matlab, the Monte Carlo simu-lation is accomplished, and the PDF, CDF, DDCF curves, relative to the limit state equation, have been achieved to describe qualitatively the probability of safe egress for passengers in fire emergency. The result indicates that the Monte Carlo simulation approach is a powerful tool to describe complex problems characterized by parameter uncertainty as well as model uncertainty.