灰色数列预测模型在生存率预测中的应用

Application of Grey Dynamic Model in Survival rate Prediction

本文采用灰色系统ＧＭ（１，１）模型，对６０７例乳腺癌手术后生存率进行预测分析。经拟合和外推预测结果满意。拟合误差率０．３６～１．８２％，外推预测误差率０．３４～２．８２％。此模型适用于进行生存率预测分析。

The postoperative survival rate of 607 cases of breast cancer was predicted by using Grey Dynamic Model.The results showed that the error rate of fitting was 0.36～1.82%,and the error rate of predicting was 0.34～2.82%.So Grey Dynamic Model could be used as survival rate prediction.