山东省肾综合征出血热疫源地演变规律

Rules of epidemic sources and areas transformation of hemorrhagic fever with renal syndrome in Shandong province

目的探讨山东省肾综合征出血热（HFRS）疫源地时空动态轨迹,发现HFRS疫源地演变规律。方法利用克力格模型和反向距离加权法模型,结合HFRS病例血清学分型资料及宿主动物监测及1974～2004年山东省HFRS疫情资料,估计HFRS发病水平,并用多重分型模型分析疫源地时空演变过程,确定其时空动态变化轨迹。结果山东省HFRS疫源地性质的时空动态演化过程是单纯姬鼠型和单纯家鼠型疫源地独立存在→以姬鼠型和以家鼠型为主的混合型疫源地相互叠加共存→以家鼠型为主的混合型疫源地长期稳定期。结论混合型HFRS疫源地并不是由姬鼠型自然疫源地演变而成的,而是姬鼠型和家鼠型HFRS疫源地的重叠或重合而成。

Objective To discover spatio-temporal dynamic track of HFRS in Shandong province and discover rules of epidemic sources and areas transformation.Methods HFRS epidemic situation data in Shandong province（1974～2004） were analyzed by the model of Kriging and inverse distance-weighted methods.Results The evolution of characteristics of HFRS focus in Shandong Province experienced the following three processes：The simple Apodemus type and the simple Rattus type existing separately to the mixed focuses with the Apodemus type dominant and the Rattus dominant type coexisted and merged to the stable state of the mixed focus with the Rattus dominant.Conclusion HFRS mixed focus of infection made up of non Apodemus type evolved into but Apodemus type and Rattus type merged each other.