摘要
本文应用马尔科夫随机模型估计从正常到EB病毒抗体阳性,再到鼻咽癌的转移概率。结果显示EB病毒抗体水平的波动较大,而多次随访检查能提高敏感度。模型参数检验也揭示EB病毒抗体的变化特征与鼻咽癌发生相关。鼻咽癌临床前期最大逗留时间为4.36年,应用EB病毒抗体检测的敏感度达99.98%。这些结果为鼻咽癌筛查的效果评价提供了依据。
A Markov stochastic chain model was used to analyze the transition rates from normal to positive anti EBV and from positive anti EBV to NPC. The results show that the fluctuation of antibody level of VCA/IgA is substantial. The relationship between variation of antibodies and NPC risk suggests the follow up tests may rise the sensitivity of screening. The maximum estimated value of the sojourn time of detectable pre clinical period is 4 36 years and the sensitivity is as high as 99 98%.These results support the application of a screening program for NPC in general population.
出处
《中国卫生统计》
CSCD
北大核心
1997年第4期12-15,共4页
Chinese Journal of Health Statistics