人口出生率地区差异的新兴古典经济学解释

New classic economics explanation for regional differences of human fertility

新兴古典经济学中,经济组织的主要功能是降低分工生产中的交易费用。家庭区别于自由契约组织(市场与企业)的特征在于成员身份确定的血缘原则,而正是这一特征决定了家庭组织分工生产的功能在分工深化过程中从主到次的逐步退化规律。经济功能的退化导致平均家庭规模以及出生率持续下降,这一结论在中国省际数据的计量分析中得到了进一步的验证。

In new classic economics, the main function of economic organizations is to decrease transaction cost in the production of division of labor. The character that family is different from free contracted organizations （ market and enterprises ） lies in the principle of blood relationship identification between the members. This character determines that the function of production of division of labor of family organizations gradually deteriorates from leading role to following role in the process of deepening division of labor. The deterioration of economic function leads to the consistent decrease of family scale and birth rate. This conclusion is further tested by metrological analysis of the provincial data of China.